AZ Super Bloom 2024?

As many photographers, hikers, and nature enthusiasts eagerly await the arrival of spring in the Arizona desert, the question on many minds, including my own, is whether we will witness another epic wildflower super bloom as we did in 2023. I know the anticipation is high, as these breathtaking displays of vibrant colors have become a very sought-after natural phenomenon to view here in Arizona’s Sonoran Desert. Coincidentally, Spring break and wildflower season is also the busiest time of year for tourism in the Grand canyon state.

My Unscientific Super Bloom Prediction:

As a photographer and avid hiker that has lived in the Phoenix metro area for 25 years I have seen my fair share of spectacular wildflower seasons. Over the years I have developed a good feel for when the conditions are favorable to produce a significant Spring wildflower event. One of the key determinants I have found is the amount of rainfall during the winter months, which directly impacts the germination and growth of dormant wildflower seeds. With over an inch of rain in January so far, and more significant rain forecasted before the end of the month, the momentum is building for a wetter than average winter. I predict if we get at least 2 or more significant and fairly slow-moving rain events before or by early March that there is a good chance we could see a robust wildflower bloom emerging by the first or second week of March in 2024. If the season tracks close to last year the peak of the Poppy bloom could stick around into the first week of April.

Will A Wildflower Super Bloom in 2024 Be As Epic as 2023?

Lets hope so, but there is obviously no guarantee. In the Phoenix area in 2023 we had a very dry summer and fall seasons. However, I can report that I am already seeing the desert “green up” quite a bit the last 7 days and I as mentioned previously more significant and steady rain is forecasted for multiple days next week. My guess is by Mid-February we should have a much clearer picture if we will see a repeat of the crazy wildflower bloom we had in 2023. If its even half as good, it will still be worthwhile to explore the desert foothills, National forests, and desert preserves in the Phoenix AZ area to find pockets of brilliant colored Mexican Poppies, Lupine, Brittlebush, Globemallow, Desert Marigolds, and other blooming desert wildflowers.

Prediction Updates:

2/9/2024: With a 1/2 inch of rain yesterday in the Tonto National Forest near Saguaro lake, the month to date rainfall amount in that area is now 2.36 inches with more rain and storms in the forecast the next 10 days. This is very good news and already bodes well for a much better than average spring wildflower season here in Arizona. There is no guarantee, but my super bloom prediction is looking pretty good right now!

2/20/24: We have not received any significant rain in the last 10 days as the rain events forecasted did not materialize. The desert is still greening up nicely but we need at least 2 more decent rain events before early March in my opinion to have an above average wildflower bloom this Spring. Stay tuned….

2/29/24: Unfortunately, still no significant rain in the Tonto National forest recently. I can report that I was out shooting images of the Wild Horses in this area yesterday and the desert is still greening up. I have not see any patches of Wildflowers like Mexican Poppies appear yet but its still early according to my notes. Stay tuned..

3/07/24: No rain last week, but likely to see some showers today. I can report that as of yesterday I am now starting to see some Mexican poppies coming up on the hillsides in the Tonto National forest. Lots of wild horses coming down from the now green hillsides.

3/15/24: The desert is still greening up very nicely with a lot more poppies blooming now. We are seeing significant thunder & rain storms today in the area which will only help! I think the next two weeks will be prime viewing for wildflowers. Not on a super bloom level, but hopefully above average.

3/18/24: We did in fact recieve almost a 1/2 inch of rain in the lower Salt River area in the Tonto National forest the last few days which bodes very well. My guess is with some more consistent sunny weather this week the Poppies should start popping…

3/21/24: Its on! I made a quick visit to the Tonto National Forest near Saguaro lake yesterday afternoon. The Mexican Poppies are stating to make a more robust appearance in the valleys and hillsides of the now green desert. The lupines still have a way to go. See a short drone shot I captured yesterday below. Im guessing we are at least a week away from peak. This is not a “Super Bloom” , but not bad…

4/01/24: I visited the Tonto National forest last Friday with a friend of mine and I can report there were lots of Mexican Poppies blooming in the valleys and hillsides. See a short video created below. More importantly, we received quite a bit of rain over the weekend with more forecasted for today which is making things very interesting. I went back and compared images from this same time last year and the bloom is definitely not as robust as 2023, but still worth checking out the next few weeks.

You can also see a recent wildflower reel I posted on my Instagram account here. @swvisionsnow

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Mexican Poppies in the Tonto National Forest March 29th, 2024.

Tonto National Forest, March 21st, 2024.

AZ Desert wildflowers spring of 2023 — Mexican gold poppies contrast with lavender colored Lupine in the Tonto National Forest near Mesa late March 2023. You can purchase a canvas print of this image here.

Mustang in a field of wildflowers in Arizona — A wild Mustang in a field of Wildflowers in the Tonto National Forest during the 2023 Super Bloom event.

A valley in the Tonto National forest blanketed with gold Mexican Poppies…

A short time-lapse video with fast moving clouds over a valley filled with Poppies.

Here is a short video I created that is posted on YouTube highlighting the wildflowers blooming in the Tonto National Forest during the Spring of 2023.